thanks to jason garelick for sending!
Grand Plot after watching the Season 4 Finale:
Okay, now that I've watched the Season 4 finale, I think I can make a pretty good guess at where at least the next season is going, and a good guess on what exactly has happened so far. I'm using bits and pieces of other theories I've found here, so if you see your theory within mine, its an homage to you, not plagarism, haha.
[I'm looking at this from the most scientifically logically point of view, btw. I try not to go too far into the "magic" of this show, although there is undoubtedly a lot of magic.]
The Island was created in the future. Yes, the future. Some kind of civilization in the future decided to make a perfect island that would be able to sustain a a group of people forever. This is perhaps due to some future catastrophe in which the world ends or something like that. So they make this island and send it back in time. (This may also explain the four-toed statue. Possibly the future civilization that created the island.)
So the island has a sentient consciousness and was programmed to make sure that all its original inhabitants were medically sustained in order for them to basically live forever. To prevent overpopulation of the island, it automatically kills pregnant women in order to maintain the population balance. Moreover, the island remains in a timeloop, in order to prevent the island from progressing in time and eventually falling prey to the future worldwide catastrophe it was made to avoid.
The original inhabitants of the island included Christian Shepard and Charles Widmore. Some time in the early to mid 1900's, something happens in which the time loop is temporarily "broken" and outsiders find and come onto the island. This could have been a similar situation as the Lost adventures we are experiencing on the show. The outsiders are led my Magnus Hanso. The outsiders eventually triumph over the inhabitants and establish the Dharma Initiative to understand the island.
Jacob, the island's programmed sentient consciousness, immediately realizes there are too many people on the island. As soon as there is more than the status quo, Jacob sends out the smoke monster to determine who was an original inhabitant and who was not. The Dharma Initiative find a way to control the smoke monster, and for a time, the war between the Dharma Initiative and the Island Inhabitants is halted.
Jacob tells his inhabitants that measures must be taken to assure that the Island population system remains safe. He send Christian Shepard, Charles Widmore, and some of the other Inhabitants into the Real World, in order to assess what time period the Island has placed itself into, and to bring back weapons and such to purge the Dharma Initiative from the Island.
Christian Shephard, Charles Widmore, and at least one other decide to stay in the real world. John Locke's father was one of the Inhabitants who decided to stay in the Real World, as well as Ben's mother. In fact, Ben's mother got pregnant on the Island, and escaped to the Real World to escape from being killed by Jacob. Shephard and Widmore go on to father Jack and Claire, and Penny, respectively.
Ben is the first of the Stray Inhabitants' children to be born. He reaches out to the Real World and lures Ben and his father to the Dharma Initiative. Once on the Island, Jacob tells Ben the whole story. He tells him that his mother escaped from the Island to give birth to him, but still died of the disease that kill pregnant Inhabitants. Jacob offers Ben to replace the "population" spot that is now vacant now that his mother died. Ben offers to help purge the Dharma Initiative.
Once Ben and the Inhabitants purged the Dharma Initiative, balance was once again restored to the Island. Or was it? Christian Shepherd and Charles Widmore were still the Stray Inhabitants in the Real World.
Two vacant spots in the population status quo. Therefore, Jacob allows two people from the Dharma Initiative to stay alive. However, for their punishment, they must build a machine that hides the Island in a new time loop from the Real World. Also as punishment, they must press the button every 108 minutes. This hides the Island in another point in time.
Charles Widmore begins to age in the Real World and seeks to find the Island once more. With his fortune, he works to create a machine that would allow him to cross over into the new time loop. However, it is not tested, and may send him to some unknown point in time. So he tricks his apparent son-in-law Desmond to sail around the world, not knowing that Widmore has placed a device allowing him to cross into the Island time loop while doing so.
The successful cross into the time-loop allows Widmore to make contact with the island. Jacob is angry at Widmore and Shepherd and refuses to let them back on the Island. So Widmore and Shepherd stage a grand plan to re-colonize the Island themselves. They select special people from all over the world. Shepherd decides to go and also bring his two kids Jack and Claire. They also plan to bring Locke onto the Island, as his mom was a Stray Inhabitant as well.
Their plan is to manipulate the passengers onto the same flight from Australia. This requires a lot of planning and conspiracy. Sun's father Mr. Paik is also possibly involved in this plan and sends Sun and Jin on the flight, as Jin is sterile and does not need to worry about Sun becoming pregnant and dying on the Island. (Mr. Paik may possibly be a Stray Inhabitant as well.)
Christian Shepherd decides to go to the Island as a corpse, knowing he will be brought to life by the Island, since he is an Original Inhabitant. He does not want to come alive, as that may automatically make Jacob kill the new intruders. Charles Widmore decides to stay behind for now, to oversee the operation from the Real World. He decides not to send his daughter to the Island either. He is not as trusting of Jacob as Christian is.
They contact and manipulate the Dharma Initiative survivor in the hatch to make Desmond not press the button at a certain time, while Oceanic 815 is in the air. This causes the plane to crash. Christian Shepherd is awoken from his casket by the Island and goes to make peace with Jacob.
Christian begs for the Island to take him back, and also at least his son and daughter Jack and Claire. The Island agrees, but says some of the Others and the rest of the passengers must be sacrificed.
Christian becomes Jacob's new spokesman. Jacob sends the smoke monster out to kill off some passengers to make room for Christian's VIP list.
The Passengers and the Inhabitants (which are now called the Others) begin to fight. Jacob lets this play out and analyzes some of the Passengers. Jacob surmises that some of the passengers may be better candidates as Inhabitants than some Others.
Jacob chooses a select group of Passengers to take in as new Inhabitants. Among these are Jack, Kate, Sawyer, Locke, Hurley, and Walt. The Island is seriously over the maximum for population and is ready for another Purge. Ben, as the leader of the Others, is the instrument of Jacob in selecting those that will survive and those that will not.
This is interrupted when Widmore sends a ship to the Island. Jacob refuses to accept another Stray Inhabitant, so Widmore makes war with the Jacob and Shepherd. Jacob and Shepherd use Ben as their general in battle against Widmore in this war to control the Island. Shepherd makes a deal with Widmore. If Widmore can find find better Replacement Inhabitants than Shepherd has found, then Shepherd will leave and Widmore can take his place. This is the game. They fight to reshape the new population of the Island. Ben, his daughter, Jack and Claire are not allowed to be killed, however. Those are the rules.
Instead of sending a new group of selected Inhabitants, Widmore as sent a death squad to kill everyone. Shepherd and Ben work to protect the Others and the VIP list. The Others are sent to a safe sanctuary on the Island. Jacob says Ben has failed and will instead replace him with Locke as the leader of the Inhabitants. As a punishment, Ben must move the Island and be banished from it forever.
Locke discovers his destiny as one of the only children of the Inhabitants. The other children are Jack, Claire, and Penny. Shepherd is concerned about this whole confusion and takes Claire to safety until it all blows over. Six of the Flight 815 passengers plus Desmond manage to escape from the Island before Ben moves the Island to yet another time loop.
The Island still senses that it has too many people. Jacob tells Locke, the new leader of the Island, that he must exterminate the surplus of people. Locke cannot accept this order. He instead leads a group of the Others in a rebellion against Jacob. This causes the Others to be split into two groups. They war for three years on the Island, suffering many horrible casualties.
Shepherd sides with Locke against Jacob. They propose peace treaties with Jacob and try to establish new populations, but none of them are acceptable to Jacob. Jacob instead demands that the six Passengers who left the Island return, as he was fond of them and wants to include them in his New Population. Until Locke manages to bring them all back, the war will continue.
Locke goes to the Real World to try and get the Oceanic Six to return, but they are dispersed and disoriented after three years. Widmore is still looking for the Island and discovers that Locke has been returning to the Real World. He has Locke killed. Jacob contacts Widmore and Ben. He has a new game proposal. Whoever brings the Oceanic Six back to him gets to come back to the Island. They are not allowed to kill each other, however.
Widmore hires Abbadon to recruit the Oceanic Six, while Ben hires them himself. Ben manages to win over Jack, Sayyid, and Hurley, but Sun and Kate have sided with Widmore. Also, in the process, Ben kills Penny for revenge for his own daughter's death at Widmore's soldiers. This angers Desmond, who reappears.
The Oceanic Six return to the Island, but separately. Desmond and Widmore follow them as well. The Island they return to is much different. Charlotte is the new leader of the Others, who have sided with Jacob. Sawyer and Juliette are leading the Resistance in place of Locke. Sawyer and Juliette are now also a couple. Sun's husband Jin is alive, as his unconscious body floated to the Island after he was presumed dead after a C4 explosion. The time lapse between the freighter and the Island caused him to wash up ashore one day earlier than the Island moved. Miles has joined the Others as Jacob's new right-hand man.
The Oceanic Six, Ben, Widmore, and Desmond go through many conflicts, alliance changes, and discovering answers before they finally seek to challenge Jacob and form some kind of treaty. Jacob is close to establishing a treaty with them, saying he will kill off some of the Others to make room for the Oceanic Six and other VIPs that they request. The Others are angered by this and try to kill off the Resistance and the Oceanic Six before Jacob decides to kill them off.
In this final battle, it is the Christian and Locke's resistance versus Charlotte and Miles Others. In the end, all of the Others are killed and a new population that is equal to the original population of Inhabitants is established. All of the New Inhabitants decide to stay on the Island and move it once again to another time loop. To make up for his crimes, Widmore decides to sacrifice himself and be the one to move the Island. It moves to another time loop, hopefully to never be discovered again.
And that is the story of Lost.
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